India vs Uruguay
Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. India have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D L. Uruguay have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D W.
The numbers. India score 0.5 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. India average 6.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Uruguay score 0.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Uruguay average 10.7 shots (3.1 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 98% against the records' 37%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The read. No firm call: Uruguay are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Uruguay the likelier winners; Uruguay are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: India 0-3 Uruguay (16% chance).
The agreed story. Uruguay or the draw, an open game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).