Japan vs New Zealand

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct, 11:30 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. Japan have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D W. New Zealand have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L.

The numbers. Japan score three and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Japan average 10.3 shots (4.3 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.0 cards a game. New Zealand score 3.7 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. New Zealand average 9.7 shots (5.0 on target), 3.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 82% against the records' 46%.

The read. No firm call: Japan are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Japan the likelier winners; Japan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Japan. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Japan Over 1.5 goals (Japan's own games don't back it (3 of 5)). Predicted score: Japan 3-0 New Zealand (12% chance).