Ecuador vs Panama
Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct, 07:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Ecuador have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L W. Panama have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W.
The numbers. Ecuador score one and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ecuador average 10.2 shots (3.8 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Panama score one and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Panama average 10.2 shots (3.8 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
The read. Ecuador to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Ecuador the likelier winners; Ecuador are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ecuador. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 21%.
The bets. Best bet: Ecuador or Draw at 1.19, rated 89% (Ecuador unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; Panama failed to win 7 of 10). Backup: Panama Under 1.5 Goals at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Ecuador 1-0 Panama (17% chance).
The agreed story. Ecuador or the draw, a tight game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).