Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match details. MLS, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 02:30 Lagos time. It is played at Rio Tinto Stadium, Sandy. The referee is Sergii Demianchuk.
What's at stake. Real Salt Lake are 11th on 32 points after 28 games, 1 point behind Portland Timbers, level on points with San Diego. A win would take them above Portland Timbers. San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 46 points after 28 games, 1 point behind FC Dallas, 1 point clear of Houston Dynamo. A win would take them above FC Dallas. Real Salt Lake have nothing left to play for, while San Jose Earthquakes need the win.
Team news. Real Salt Lake are without J. J. Arias (hamstring injury), E. Eneli (knee injury), L. Engel (hamstring injury), J. Glad (groin injury), D. Luna (knee injury), G. Dillon (foot injury). San Jose Earthquakes are without N. Adimabua (hernia), J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza (injury), D. Johnson (lower-body injury), D. Jones (achilles tendon injury), B. Kikanovic (lower-body injury), J. Skahan (lower-body injury).
Form. Real Salt Lake have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L. In this competition Real Salt Lake have gone L W L L L L. San Jose Earthquakes have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W W. In this competition San Jose Earthquakes have gone D W D W W D.
The numbers. Real Salt Lake score 1.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Real Salt Lake average 11.8 shots (4.2 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. San Jose Earthquakes score one and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. San Jose Earthquakes average 12.0 shots (5.0 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Real Salt Lake have won five, drawn one and lost four. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Real Salt Lake won two and San Jose Earthquakes won two. The last time they met, on 27 Jul 2025, it finished Real Salt Lake 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes: Real Salt Lake had 11 shots to 9, 60% of the ball, ten yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Real Salt Lake's record still gives them 28% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. San Jose Earthquakes to win. A draw is live. An open game. San Jose Earthquakes are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour San Jose Earthquakes. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 75% on the records (Real Salt Lake: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; San Jose Earthquakes: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Real Salt Lake 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).