SE Palmeiras SP vs SC Corinthians SP
Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 21:30 Lagos time. It is played at Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. The referee is Anderson Daronco.
What's at stake. SE Palmeiras SP are 2nd on 60 points after 29 games, 1 point behind Flamengo, 9 points clear of Fluminense. A win would take them above Flamengo. SC Corinthians SP are 16th on 32 points after 29 games, 1 point behind Mirassol, 1 point clear of Internacional. A win would take them above Mirassol.
Team news. SE Palmeiras SP are without Jefte (knee injury), Paulinho (muscle injury), Jefte (knee injury), Paulinho (muscle injury). SC Corinthians SP are without A. Carrillo (lacking match fitness), Dieguinho (inactive), R. Garro (yellow cards), Joao Pedro (inactive), Kaio Cesar (yellow cards), Kayke (knee injury). R. Garro is their main creator.
Form. SE Palmeiras SP have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D D. In this competition SE Palmeiras SP have gone W D W D D W. SC Corinthians SP have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition SC Corinthians SP have gone L L L L L L.
The numbers. SE Palmeiras SP score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. SE Palmeiras SP average 19.5 shots (6.4 on target), 6.6 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. SC Corinthians SP score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. SC Corinthians SP average 15.5 shots (4.5 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SE Palmeiras SP have won two, drawn four and lost four. None of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, SE Palmeiras SP won one, two were drawn and SC Corinthians SP won one. The last time they met, on 12 Apr 2026, it finished SE Palmeiras SP 0-0 SC Corinthians SP: SE Palmeiras SP had 16 shots to 6, 68% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. SC Corinthians SP's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. SE Palmeiras SP to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make SE Palmeiras SP the likelier winners; SE Palmeiras SP are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SE Palmeiras SP. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%. Ten of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.28, 72% on the records (SE Palmeiras SP: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; SC Corinthians SP: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); SE Palmeiras SP or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SE Palmeiras SP 1-0 SC Corinthians SP (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).