SPSAO

01:00Sun 11 Oct

ECV

Sao Paulo FC SP vs EC Vitoria BA

CLASS B

THE READ

Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Morumbi, Sao Paulo. The referee is Lucas Casagrande.

What's at stake. Sao Paulo FC SP are 11th on 36 points after 29 games, 1 point behind RB Bragantino, level on points with Vitoria. A win would take them above RB Bragantino. EC Vitoria BA are 12th on 36 points after 29 games, level on points with Sao Paulo, 1 point clear of Botafogo. A win would take them above Sao Paulo.

Team news. Sao Paulo FC SP are without N. Bosshardt (inactive), Buta (knee injury), D. Duarte (knee injury), Ferreira (injury), Lucca Marques (jaw injury), Luciano (inactive). Luciano is their top scorer. EC Vitoria BA are without Anderson (knee injury), Baralhas (broken leg), Camutanga (broken leg), Dudu (back injury), Edu (achilles tendon injury), Fabiano (knee injury).

Form. Sao Paulo FC SP have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. In this competition Sao Paulo FC SP have gone L L W L W W. EC Vitoria BA have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. In this competition EC Vitoria BA have gone W L D W L L.

The numbers. Sao Paulo FC SP score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Sao Paulo FC SP average 16.8 shots (4.8 on target), 8.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. EC Vitoria BA score one and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. EC Vitoria BA average 15.8 shots (4.8 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Sao Paulo FC SP have won seven, drawn none and lost three. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Sao Paulo FC SP won two and EC Vitoria BA won two. The last time they met, on 11 Apr 2026, it finished Sao Paulo FC SP 0-2 EC Vitoria BA: Sao Paulo FC SP had 16 shots to 15, 59% of the ball, five yellow cards.

The case against. Sao Paulo FC SP without Luciano (striker). EC Vitoria BA's record still gives them 31% to win.

The read. Sao Paulo FC SP or the draw. A tight game. Sao Paulo FC SP are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sao Paulo FC SP. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Sao Paulo FC SP or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Sao Paulo FC SP or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Sao Paulo FC SP 1-1 EC Vitoria BA (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Sao Paulo FC SP or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.12

SAO 5 of 5 (100%) · ECV 6 of 6 (100%)90%

Sao Paulo FC SP scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home · EC Vitoria BA trailed or failed to win in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues)

Sao Paulo FC SP or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.11

SAO 4 of 5 (80%) · ECV 8 of 10 (80%)85%

Sao Paulo FC SP: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 6 of 6 · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level · the call is Sao Paulo FC SP or the draw: Sao Paulo FC SP without Luciano (striker) (rule 3)

Sao Paulo FC SP or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.17

SAO 5 of 5 (100%) · ECV 7 of 10 (70%)76.7%

Sao Paulo FC SP: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 4 of 6 · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level · the call is Sao Paulo FC SP or the draw: Sao Paulo FC SP without Luciano (striker) (rule 3)

Sao Paulo FC SP 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.36

SAO 4 of 5 (80%) · ECV 5 of 6 (83%)74.4%

Sao Paulo FC SP scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 5 of 6 at home · EC Vitoria BA trailed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · the call is Sao Paulo FC SP or the draw: Sao Paulo FC SP without Luciano (striker) (rule 3)

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

SAO 5 of 5 (100%) · ECV 10 of 10 (100%)87.6%

Sao Paulo FC SP: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA: under 4.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 6 of 6 · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

SAO PAULO FC SP GOALS

Sao Paulo FC SP Over 0.5 goalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.17

SAO 5 of 5 (100%) · ECV 7 of 10 (70%)74.9%

Sao Paulo FC SP scored in 5 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 4 of 6 · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level · Sao Paulo FC SP without Luciano (rule 3)

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.09

SAO 5 of 5 (100%) · ECV 10 of 10 (100%)100%

Sao Paulo FC SP: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.17

SAO 4 of 5 (80%) · ECV 10 of 10 (100%)93.8%

Sao Paulo FC SP: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.41

SAO 4 of 5 (80%) · ECV 8 of 10 (80%)80.8%

Sao Paulo FC SP: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.41

SAO 3 of 5 (60%) · ECV 8 of 10 (80%)75.8%

Sao Paulo FC SP: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

CORNERS

Over 8.5 CornersIN CODES

1.38

SAO 4 of 5 (80%) · ECV 7 of 8 (88%)85%

Sao Paulo FC SP's games: over 8.5 corners in 4 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA's games: over 8.5 corners in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SAO 4 of 5 (80%) · ECV 7 of 8 (88%)85%

Sao Paulo FC SP's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 at home · EC Vitoria BA's games: over 2.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

Left off the list: Sao Paulo FC SP or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Sao Paulo FC SP or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.2%

Sao Paulo FC SP goals →

EC Vitoria BA goals ↓

0-08%

1-09%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.7%

1-41.0%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SAO PAULO FC SPDLDLWWLWLL1.10 PPG

EC VITORIA BALLLWLLWDLW1.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SAO PAULO FC SP HOMExEC VITORIA BA AWAY

0.90SCORED A GAME1.001.20CONCEDED A GAME1.7020%CLEAN SHEETS30%24%FAILED TO SCORE31%8.12CORNERS A GAME5.381.62CARDS A GAME2.121.61xG1.061.05xG AGAINST1.52

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME1.33-0.43GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.17+0.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+5.21.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.47LEAGUE GAMES6

EC Vitoria BA: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

65%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

42%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

98%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SAO PAULO FC SP OR DRAW

82%

OKAY · 80/85

EC VITORIA BA OR DRAW

68%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SAO PAULO FC SPxEC VITORIA BA

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME1.601.20CONCEDED A GAME1.402.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.060%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

SAO PAULO FC SP 7 · 70%DRAW 0EC VITORIA BA 3 · 30%

3 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

8 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

4 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2016-09-25Sao Paulo FC SP 0 – 2 EC Vitoria BA

2017-06-08Sao Paulo FC SP 2 – 0 EC Vitoria BA

2017-09-17Sao Paulo FC SP 2 – 1 EC Vitoria BA

2018-06-13Sao Paulo FC SP 3 – 0 EC Vitoria BA

2018-10-26Sao Paulo FC SP 1 – 0 EC Vitoria BA

2024-05-05Sao Paulo FC SP 3 – 1 EC Vitoria BA

2024-08-25Sao Paulo FC SP 2 – 1 EC Vitoria BA

2025-08-09Sao Paulo FC SP 2 – 0 EC Vitoria BA

TEAM NEWS

SAO PAULO FC SP

Out: N. Bosshardt (Inactive), Buta (Knee Injury), D. Duarte (Knee Injury), Ferreira (Injury), Lucca Marques (Jaw injury), Luciano (Inactive)

EC VITORIA BA

Out: Anderson (Knee Injury), Baralhas (Broken Leg), Camutanga (Broken Leg), Dudu (Back Injury), Edu (Achilles Tendon Injury), Fabiano (Knee Injury)

TRENDS

Sao Paulo FC SP have scored in 60% of their games.

EC Vitoria BA have scored in 60% of their games.

Sao Paulo FC SP kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

EC Vitoria BA kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards