Stockton Town vs Bury FC
Stockton Town scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · Bury FC conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%
Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Stockton Town are 20th on 8 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Bamber Bridge, 1 point clear of Ilkeston Town. A win would take them above Bamber Bridge. Bury FC are 8th on 16 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Warrington Town, level on points with Curzon Ashton. A win would take them above Warrington Town.
Form. Stockton Town have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L L. In this competition Stockton Town have gone L W D L L L. Bury FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W.
The numbers. Stockton Town score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Stockton Town average 5.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Bury FC score 3.3 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Bury FC average 18.1 shots (7.6 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
The case against. Stockton Town's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Bury FC to win. An open game. Bury FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bury FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 79% on the records (Stockton Town: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Bury FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Stockton Town 1-2 Bury FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).