Alfreton Town FC vs FC United of Manchester
Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Alfreton Town FC are 11th on 15 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Lancaster City, 1 point clear of Hyde United. A win would take them above Lancaster City. FC United of Manchester are 22nd on 5 points after 9 games, 2 points behind Ilkeston Town. A win would take them above Ilkeston Town.
Form. Alfreton Town FC have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. In this competition Alfreton Town FC have gone L W L W L W. FC United of Manchester have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W.
The numbers. Alfreton Town FC score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Alfreton Town FC average 4.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game. FC United of Manchester score 1.8 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. FC United of Manchester average 10.6 shots (5.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.2 cards a game.
The case against. FC United of Manchester's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Alfreton Town FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Alfreton Town FC the likelier winners; Alfreton Town FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Alfreton Town FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, 77% on the records (Alfreton Town FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; FC United of Manchester: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 away). Leave: FC United of Manchester Over 0.5 Goals (Alfreton Town FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); FC United of Manchester Under 1.5 goals (FC United of Manchester's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Alfreton Town FC 2-1 FC United of Manchester (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).