Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 4. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stade de Luxembourg. The referee is Andris Treimanis.
What's at stake. Luxembourg are 3rd on 3 points after 3 games, 2 points behind Estonia, 2 points clear of Bulgaria. A win would take them above Estonia. Bulgaria are 4th on 1 point after 3 games, 2 points behind Luxembourg. A win would take them above Luxembourg.
Form. Luxembourg have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. Bulgaria have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W.
The numbers. Luxembourg score 0.7 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and seven games without a goal. Luxembourg average 7.4 shots (2.8 on target), 2.9 corners and 3.2 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Bulgaria score 1.8 and concede 2.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Bulgaria average 8.6 shots (4.0 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Luxembourg have won one, drawn two and lost two. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Luxembourg won one, two were drawn and Bulgaria won one. The last time they met, on 26 Sep 2026, it finished Luxembourg 2-1 Bulgaria: Luxembourg had 15 shots to 10, 50% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Luxembourg the likelier winners, but Luxembourg are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bulgaria. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%; three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Bulgaria's record still gives them 47% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The read. Luxembourg or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Luxembourg the likelier winners; Luxembourg are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bulgaria. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, 79% on the records (Luxembourg: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10; Bulgaria: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Luxembourg Over 0.5 goals (Luxembourg's own games don't back it (3 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).