Estonia vs Iceland

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 4. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn. The referee is David Dickinson.

What's at stake. Estonia are 2nd on 5 points after 3 games, 2 points behind Iceland, 2 points clear of Luxembourg. A win would take them above Iceland. Iceland are 1st on 7 points after 3 games, 2 points clear of Estonia.

Form. Estonia have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W. Iceland have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W.

The numbers. Estonia score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Estonia average 7.0 shots (3.0 on target), 3.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Iceland score 2.1 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Iceland average 8.9 shots (4.8 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 26 Sep 2026, it finished Estonia 1-1 Iceland: Estonia had 8 shots to 19, 37% of the ball, three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The read. Iceland to win. An open game. Iceland are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Iceland. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Iceland to Win Either Half: Yes (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Estonia 1-2 Iceland (8% chance).