BELBLR

19:45Tue 6 Oct

FIN

FIN

Belarus vs Finland

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 4. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest. The referee is Sascha Stegemann.

What's at stake. Belarus are 3rd on 4 points after 3 games, 2 points behind Albania, 4 points clear of San Marino. A win would take them above Albania. Finland are 1st on 7 points after 3 games, 1 point clear of Albania.

Form. Belarus have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D D. Finland have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W.

The numbers. Belarus score 0.9 and concede two a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Belarus average 7.9 shots (2.9 on target), 3.7 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Finland score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Finland average 10.1 shots (4.1 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 65% of the ball.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 29 Sep 2026, it finished Belarus 0-0 Finland: Belarus had 9 shots to 9, 39% of the ball, four yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.

The case against. Belarus's record still gives them 26% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.

The read. Finland or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Finland are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Belarus Under 1.5 goals (Finland's own games don't back it (3 of 5)); Finland or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Belarus 1-1 Finland (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Finland or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.11

BLR 3 of 5 (60%) · FIN 8 of 10 (80%)75.5%

Finland: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · Belarus: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against

Finland or Draw (1UP)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.22

BLR 3 of 5 (60%) · FIN 4 of 6 (67%)68.3%

Finland scored first 1 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus trailed or failed to win in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

Double Chance: Draw or FinlandLEANPAGE ONLY

1.23

BLR 3 of 5 (60%) · FIN 9 of 10 (90%)67.5%

Finland unbeaten in 3 of 5 away · Belarus failed to win 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · each game weighed by who it was against

Finland (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.48

BLR 5 of 8 (62%) · FIN 5 of 6 (83%)64.1%

Finland won 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Belarus lost 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 4, refunded 2, lost 3

Finland or draw and under 2.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.93

BLR 5 of 10 (50%) · FIN 2 of 5 (40%)58.7%

Belarus: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Finland: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 40% · each game weighed by who it was against

FINLAND GOALS

Finland Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 78%

1.29

BLR 4 of 5 (80%) · FIN 7 of 10 (70%)52.5%

Finland scored in 4 of 5 away · Belarus conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 1.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BLR 10 of 10 (100%) · FIN 6 of 7 (86%)90.3%

Belarus's games: over 1.5 cards in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Finland's games: over 1.5 cards in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Belarus Under 1.5 goals (Finland's own games don't back it (3 of 5)); Finland or draw and under 3.5 goals (the numbers (50%) and the records (54%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 14.1%

Belarus goals →

Finland goals ↓

0-012%

1-012%

2-08%

3-03%

4-01.0%

5-00.2%

0-110%

1-114%

2-18%

3-13%

4-11.0%

5-10.2%

0-25%

1-27%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-32%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.5%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-40.5%

1-40.6%

2-40.3%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

BELARUSDLLLLDDLDW0.70 PPG

FINLANDWLWLLWDWDW1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BELARUS HOMExFINLAND AWAY

0.90SCORED A GAME1.702.00CONCEDED A GAME1.2030%CLEAN SHEETS30%67%FAILED TO SCORE33%3.70CORNERS A GAME5.002.80CARDS A GAME1.29

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

BELARUS 0 · 0%DRAW 1FINLAND 0 · 0%

2026-09-29Belarus 0 – 0 Finland

TRENDS

Belarus have scored in 50% of their games.

Finland have scored in 70% of their games.

Belarus kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Finland kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards