Albania vs San Marino
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 4. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Arena Kombëtare, Tirana. The referee is Mehmet Turkmen.
What's at stake. Albania are 2nd on 6 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Finland, 2 points clear of Belarus. A win would take them above Finland. San Marino are 4th on 0 points after 3 games, 4 points behind Belarus.
Form. Albania have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. San Marino have won none, drawn none and lost ten of their last ten, 0.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. Albania score 1.1 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Albania average 10.1 shots (3.5 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. San Marino score 0.2 and concede 5.1 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and eight games without a goal. San Marino average 3.7 shots (0.9 on target), 2.2 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 31% of the ball.
Head to head. Albania have won all of the last three meetings. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 29 Sep 2026, it finished Albania 3-0 San Marino: Albania had 14 shots to 6, 72% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 97% against the records' 77%.
The read. No firm call: Albania are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Albania the likelier winners; Albania are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Albania; the meetings favour Albania. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%. Two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Albania 5-0 San Marino (14% chance).
The agreed story. Albania or the draw, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Albania in their last internationals: lost 1-2 at Finland, won 3-0 at San Marino, won 2-0 v Belarus. San Marino in their last internationals: lost 0-4 at Belarus, lost 0-3 v Albania, lost 0-7 v Finland.
So. A banker match for Albania not to lose.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).