HAHAR

20:00Sun 4 Oct

LOU

Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City FC

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. USL Cup, Final. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Trinity Health Stadium.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Hartford Athletic have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W W. Louisville City FC have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D D.

The numbers. Hartford Athletic score 2.3 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Hartford Athletic average 9.5 shots (4.5 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.9 cards a game. Louisville City FC score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Louisville City FC average 10.7 shots (4.4 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.7 cards a game.

The case against. A knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Hartford Athletic are not clearly stronger.

The read. Hartford Athletic or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Hartford Athletic the likelier winners; Hartford Athletic are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Hartford Athletic. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Hartford Athletic 2-1 Louisville City FC (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

LOUISVILLE CITY FC GOALS

Louisville City FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.36

HAR 7 of 8 (88%) · LOU 4 of 5 (80%)85%

Louisville City FC scored in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Hartford Athletic conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 88% · Louisville City FC: only games against sides at Hartford Athletic's level · Hartford Athletic: only games against sides at Louisville City FC's level

Louisville City FC Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

HAR 5 of 8 (62%) · LOU 3 of 5 (60%)63.8%

Louisville City FC scored under 1.5 in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Hartford Athletic conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 69% · Louisville City FC: only games against sides at Hartford Athletic's level · Hartford Athletic: only games against sides at Louisville City FC's level

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HAR 5 of 5 (100%) · LOU 6 of 8 (75%)87.5%

Hartford Athletic's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 5 at home · Louisville City FC's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · Hartford Athletic: only games against sides at Louisville City FC's level · Louisville City FC: only games against sides at Hartford Athletic's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.5%

Hartford Athletic goals →

Louisville City FC goals ↓

0-06%

1-09%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-16%

1-112%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-27%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.5%

5-30.2%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.7%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

HARTFORD ATHLETICWWWWDWWWDD2.40 PPG

LOUISVILLE CITY FCDDWLDDDLWD1.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

HARTFORD ATHLETIC HOMExLOUISVILLE CITY FC AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME1.101.20CONCEDED A GAME1.1010%CLEAN SHEETS30%4.70CORNERS A GAME5.102.90CARDS A GAME1.70

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.50POINTS A GAME1.33+0.21GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.08-4.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.61.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.214LEAGUE GAMES12

Louisville City FC: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

85%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

58%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

HARTFORD ATHLETIC OR DRAW

92%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

LOUISVILLE CITY FC OR DRAW

39%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (14 and 12 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HARTFORD ATHLETICxLOUISVILLE CITY FC

6GAMES62.33SCORED A GAME2.001.33CONCEDED A GAME2.503.7GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.5100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%83%OVER 2.5 GOALS83%83%BOTH SCORE100%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Hartford Athletic have scored in 100% of their games.

Louisville City FC have scored in 70% of their games.

Hartford Athletic kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Louisville City FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards