Match details. Liga de Expansion MX. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 02:00 Lagos time.
Form. Tepatitlan FC have won two, drawn none and lost eight of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. Atletico Morelia have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W W.
The numbers. Tepatitlan FC score 1.2 and concede 2.3 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Tepatitlan FC average 4.7 corners and 3.3 cards a game. Atletico Morelia score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Atletico Morelia average 7.2 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
The case against. Tepatitlan FC's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Atletico Morelia to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Atletico Morelia the likelier winners; Atletico Morelia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atletico Morelia. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Atletico Morelia or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Tepatitlan FC 1-2 Atletico Morelia (9% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Atletico Morelia or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
TEP 4 of 5 (80%) · ATL 6 of 6 (100%)91.7%
Atletico Morelia: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Tepatitlan FC: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · both last 10: 95% · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level
Atletico Morelia (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY
1.35
TEP 3 of 5 (60%) · ATL 4 of 6 (67%)63.8%
Atletico Morelia won 3 of 5 away (draws left out) · Tepatitlan FC lost 4 of 6 at home (draws left out) · both last 10: 73% · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · won 7, refunded 0, lost 4
Atletico Morelia or Draw (1UP)LEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
TEP 3 of 5 (60%) · ATL 3 of 5 (60%)62.2%
Atletico Morelia scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 3 of 5 away · Tepatitlan FC trailed or failed to win in 4 of 6 at home · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level
Atletico Morelia 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
TEP 3 of 5 (60%) · ATL 3 of 5 (60%)62.2%
Atletico Morelia scored first 3 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 3 of 5 away · Tepatitlan FC trailed in 4 of 6 at home · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level
GOALS
Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
TEP 6 of 6 (100%) · ATL 5 of 5 (100%)93.1%
Tepatitlan FC: over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Atletico Morelia: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.52
TEP 4 of 6 (67%) · ATL 2 of 5 (40%)52.4%
Tepatitlan FC: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Atletico Morelia: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 60% · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level
TEPATITLAN FC GOALS
Tepatitlan FC Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.42
TEP 4 of 6 (67%) · ATL 4 of 5 (80%)67.7%
Tepatitlan FC scored under 1.5 in 4 of 6 at home · Atletico Morelia conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level
ATLETICO MORELIA GOALS
Atletico Morelia Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
TEP 4 of 5 (80%) · ATL 6 of 6 (100%)80%
Atletico Morelia scored in 4 of 5 away · Tepatitlan FC conceded in 6 of 6 at home · both last 10: 95% · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Tepatitlan FC's level · Tepatitlan FC: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level
Left off the list: Atletico Morelia or Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (70%) and the records (90%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–29.4%
Tepatitlan FC goals →
Atletico Morelia goals ↓
0-07%
1-07%
2-04%
3-02%
4-00.5%
5-00.1%
0-19%
1-112%
2-17%
3-13%
4-10.8%
5-10.2%
0-28%
1-29%
2-25%
3-22%
4-20.6%
5-20.1%
0-34%
1-35%
2-33%
3-31%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-42%
1-42%
2-41%
3-40.5%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.6%
1-50.7%
2-50.4%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).
FORM · LAST 10
TEPATITLAN FCWLLLLWLLLL0.60 PPG
ATLETICO MORELIADLWWWWLWWL1.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
TEPATITLAN FC HOMExATLETICO MORELIA AWAY
0.80SCORED A GAME1.912.90CONCEDED A GAME1.0940%BOTH SCORED60%0%CLEAN SHEETS30%4.70CORNERS A GAME7.183.30CARDS A GAME2.73
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
0.33POINTS A GAME2.00-2.56GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.82-11.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+4.20.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.09LEAGUE GAMES11
Atletico Morelia: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).
ATLETICO MORELIA 0:2 HANDICAP
–
373 OF 433
NO PRICE YET
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
63%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
53%
NO · 85/90
TEPATITLAN FC OR DRAW
27%
NO · 80/85
ATLETICO MORELIA OR DRAW
71%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
TEPATITLAN FCxATLETICO MORELIA
5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME1.002.60CONCEDED A GAME0.803.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.860%OVER 1.5 GOALS40%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%40%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Tepatitlan FC have scored in 40% of their games.
Atletico Morelia have scored in 90% of their games.
Tepatitlan FC kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.
Atletico Morelia kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards