ADALE

02:00Fri 9 Oct

CFC

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC vs CF Correcaminos UAT

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura - 12. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 02:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC are 14th on 10 points after 11 games, 1 point behind CDS Tampico Madero, 2 points clear of Cruz Azul Hidalgo. A win would take them above CDS Tampico Madero. CF Correcaminos UAT are 9th on 16 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Durango, 2 points clear of Tapatío. A win would take them above Durango.

Form. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. CF Correcaminos UAT have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D L.

The numbers. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC average 3.2 corners and 2.9 cards a game. CF Correcaminos UAT score 1.6 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CF Correcaminos UAT average 5.9 corners and 2.7 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC have won six, drawn two and lost two. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC won two, one was drawn and CF Correcaminos UAT won one. The last time they met, on 18 Apr 2026, it finished Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 3-1 CF Correcaminos UAT.

Where it pulls both ways. CF Correcaminos UAT are the form side, but the meetings favour Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: in the last ten meetings, Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC won six, CF Correcaminos UAT won two and two were drawn.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 1-1 CF Correcaminos UAT (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

ALE 5 of 5 (100%) · CFC 10 of 10 (100%)95.7%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · CF Correcaminos UAT: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 5 of 6 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: only games against sides at CF Correcaminos UAT's level · CF Correcaminos UAT: only games against sides at Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC's level

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.26

ALE 5 of 5 (100%) · CFC 8 of 10 (80%)89.7%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · CF Correcaminos UAT: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · H2H 5 of 6 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: only games against sides at CF Correcaminos UAT's level · CF Correcaminos UAT: only games against sides at Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC's level

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA FC GOALS

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC Over 0.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.33

ALE 4 of 5 (80%) · CFC 7 of 10 (70%)62.9%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC scored in 4 of 5 at home · CF Correcaminos UAT conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 4 of 6 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: only games against sides at CF Correcaminos UAT's level · CF Correcaminos UAT: only games against sides at Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC's level

CF CORRECAMINOS UAT GOALS

CF Correcaminos UAT Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.10

ALE 8 of 10 (80%) · CFC 3 of 5 (60%)73.3%

CF Correcaminos UAT scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC conceded in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · CF Correcaminos UAT: only games against sides at Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC's level · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: only games against sides at CF Correcaminos UAT's level

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.12

ALE 5 of 5 (100%) · CFC 8 of 10 (80%)84.2%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · CF Correcaminos UAT: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: only games against sides at CF Correcaminos UAT's level · CF Correcaminos UAT: only games against sides at Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC's level

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.29

ALE 5 of 5 (100%) · CFC 6 of 10 (60%)80.8%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · CF Correcaminos UAT: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: only games against sides at CF Correcaminos UAT's level · CF Correcaminos UAT: only games against sides at Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC's level

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.51

ALE 4 of 5 (80%) · CFC 6 of 10 (60%)69.2%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · CF Correcaminos UAT: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC: only games against sides at CF Correcaminos UAT's level · CF Correcaminos UAT: only games against sides at Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC's level

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.9%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC goals →

CF Correcaminos UAT goals ↓

0-07%

1-09%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-20.9%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-40.8%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA FCLLLWLDLWWL1.00 PPG

CF CORRECAMINOS UATDWLDLDWLWW1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA FC HOMExCF CORRECAMINOS UAT AWAY

0.73SCORED A GAME1.732.00CONCEDED A GAME1.6430%CLEAN SHEETS30%36%FAILED TO SCORE18%3.18CORNERS A GAME5.912.91CARDS A GAME2.73

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

649 OF 684

NO PRICE YET

The league averages 5.0+ cards a game.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.11POINTS A GAME1.30-1.22GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00-3.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-2.00.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.69LEAGUE GAMES10

CF Correcaminos UAT: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

72%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

82%

NO · 85/90

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA FC OR DRAW

67%

NO · 80/85

CF CORRECAMINOS UAT OR DRAW

56%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA FCxCF CORRECAMINOS UAT

5GAMES50.60SCORED A GAME0.802.80CONCEDED A GAME1.803.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE60%5.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES7.08.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA FC 6 · 60%DRAW 2CF CORRECAMINOS UAT 2 · 20%

4 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

5 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

4 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2021-11-03Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 2 – 1 CF Correcaminos UAT

2022-04-13Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 1 – 0 CF Correcaminos UAT

2022-07-27Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 0 – 0 CF Correcaminos UAT

2023-02-24Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 4 – 0 CF Correcaminos UAT

2023-08-30Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 0 – 7 CF Correcaminos UAT

2024-02-07Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 1 – 0 CF Correcaminos UAT

2024-09-13Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 3 – 1 CF Correcaminos UAT

2025-03-01Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC 0 – 1 CF Correcaminos UAT

TRENDS

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC have scored in 70% of their games.

CF Correcaminos UAT have scored in 80% of their games.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

CF Correcaminos UAT kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards