Match details. Primera LPF, Clausura - 13. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón, Buenos Aires. The referee is Facundo Tello.
What's at stake. Racing Club Avellaneda are 13th on 11 points after 12 games, 2 points behind Banfield, 3 points clear of Aldosivi. A win would take them above Banfield. CA Independiente Avellaneda are 7th on 18 points after 12 games, 2 points behind Gimnasia M., 1 point clear of Newells Old Boys. A win would take them above Gimnasia M..
Form. Racing Club Avellaneda have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. In this competition Racing Club Avellaneda have gone L W W L L L. CA Independiente Avellaneda have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D W. In this competition CA Independiente Avellaneda have gone D L W D W L.
The numbers. Racing Club Avellaneda score one and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Racing Club Avellaneda average 14.8 shots (4.9 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 63% of the ball. CA Independiente Avellaneda score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CA Independiente Avellaneda average 12.4 shots (3.5 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Racing Club Avellaneda have won three, drawn four and lost three. One of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, three were drawn and CA Independiente Avellaneda won one. The last time they met, on 4 Apr 2026, it finished Racing Club Avellaneda 0-1 CA Independiente Avellaneda: Racing Club Avellaneda had 10 shots to 8, 50% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 28% against the records' 52%.
The read. No firm call: CA Independiente Avellaneda are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. CA Independiente Avellaneda are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CA Independiente Avellaneda. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%. Nine of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.22, 76% on the records (Racing Club Avellaneda: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home; CA Independiente Avellaneda: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Racing Club Avellaneda 1-1 CA Independiente Avellaneda (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).