Indonesia vs Thailand
Match details. It's the FIFA ASEAN Cup final. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. The match is at Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium in Jakarta.
What's at stake. Indonesia sit on 7 points after three games, level with Malaysia. Thailand have 6 points after three games, level with Vietnam. It's a one-off final, and if it ends level we go straight to penalties.
Form. Indonesia have five wins, two draws and three losses in their last ten, averaging 1.7 points a game. Their last five are W D W D L. Thailand have six wins, one draw and three defeats in their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their recent five go L W W D L.
The numbers. At home Indonesia score 3.3 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 11.5 shots (4.5 on target), 6.2 corners, 2.4 cards and 55% possession. Thailand score 1.8 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, keeping five clean sheets. They average 11.3 shots (4.3 on target), 3.8 corners, 1.1 cards and 52% possession.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Indonesia have one win, three draws and five losses. Seven of those nine went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in six. In the last four meetings three were drawn and Thailand won one. The most recent clash on 29 Dec 2022 ended 1-1.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board lists Indonesia at 29% while the records suggest 53%. Their goals for and against hint at a tight game, yet the records give over 2.5 goals a 56% chance and seven of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. No firm call: Thailand are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Thailand are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Thailand; the meetings favour Thailand. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%. Seven of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 6.5 Corners (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Indonesia 2-1 Thailand (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).