AFC Hornchurch vs Eastleigh FC
Match details. National League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Hornchurch Stadium, London.
What's at stake. AFC Hornchurch are 12th on 18 points after 12 games, level on points with Sutton Utd, 1 point clear of FC Halifax Town. A win would take them above Sutton Utd. Eastleigh FC are 17th on 15 points after 12 games, level on points with Forest Green, 1 point clear of Tamworth. A win would take them above Forest Green.
Form. AFC Hornchurch have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L W. Eastleigh FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W L.
The numbers. AFC Hornchurch score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. AFC Hornchurch average 4.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Eastleigh FC score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Eastleigh FC average 4.2 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The case against. Eastleigh FC's record still gives them 46% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The read. AFC Hornchurch or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Both teams' records favour Eastleigh FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.43, 74% on the records (AFC Hornchurch: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8; Eastleigh FC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AFC Hornchurch 1-1 Eastleigh FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).