TKTOB

12:00Sat 10 Oct

AST

AST

Tobol Kostanay vs Astana

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time. It is played at Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay.

What's at stake. Tobol Kostanay are 7th on 34 points after 26 games, 4 points behind Yelimay Semey, 2 points clear of Zhenys. Astana are 3rd on 45 points after 24 games, 12 points behind Kairat Almaty, level on points with Okzhetpes.

Form. Tobol Kostanay have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. In this competition Tobol Kostanay have gone L W W L W W. Astana have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W D. In this competition Astana have gone W L W W D W.

The numbers. Tobol Kostanay score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Tobol Kostanay average 0.3 corners and 0.5 cards a game. Astana score 2.1 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Astana average 1.1 corners and 0.2 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Tobol Kostanay have won five, drawn one and lost four. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Tobol Kostanay won two and Astana won two. The last time they met, on 29 Apr 2026, it finished Tobol Kostanay 2-1 Astana.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Astana are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Tobol Kostanay. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The case against. Tobol Kostanay's record still gives them 48% to win.

The read. Astana or the draw. Astana are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tobol Kostanay.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Astana 1UP (the signs point different ways); Tobol Kostanay Under 1.5 goals (Tobol Kostanay's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Astana (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Astana or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TOB 9 of 10 (90%) · AST 4 of 5 (80%)84%

Astana: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tobol Kostanay: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 90% · H2H 4 of 6 · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level

Astana win or both teams scoreIN CODES

1.18

TOB 9 of 10 (90%) · AST 4 of 5 (80%)82.9%

Astana: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tobol Kostanay: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85% · H2H 4 of 6 · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level

Astana or Draw (1UP)PAGE ONLY

no price yet

TOB 4 of 5 (80%) · AST 9 of 10 (90%)76.7%

Astana scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tobol Kostanay trailed or failed to win in 3 of 5 at home

Astana or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

TOB 8 of 10 (80%) · AST 4 of 5 (80%)72.2%

Astana: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tobol Kostanay: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 6 · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level

Astana or Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.30

TOB 10 of 10 (100%) · AST 2 of 5 (40%)66.6%

Astana: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tobol Kostanay: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80% · H2H 4 of 6 · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level

Astana (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.64

TOB 8 of 9 (89%) · AST 1 of 5 (20%)60.7%

Astana won 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Tobol Kostanay lost 1 of 5 at home (draws left out) · both last 10: 61% · H2H 2 of 6 · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level · won 3, refunded 1, lost 5

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TOB 5 of 5 (100%) · AST 10 of 10 (100%)95.4%

Tobol Kostanay: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Astana: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 6 of 6 · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.20

TOB 4 of 5 (80%) · AST 7 of 10 (70%)88.6%

Tobol Kostanay: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Astana: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level

TOBOL KOSTANAY GOALS

Tobol Kostanay Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.25

TOB 4 of 5 (80%) · AST 6 of 10 (60%)71.4%

Tobol Kostanay scored in 4 of 5 at home · Astana conceded in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · H2H 5 of 6 · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level

ASTANA GOALS

Astana Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.19

TOB 9 of 10 (90%) · AST 4 of 5 (80%)75.9%

Astana scored in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tobol Kostanay conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85% · H2H 4 of 6 · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.32

TOB 5 of 5 (100%) · AST 8 of 10 (80%)87.1%

Tobol Kostanay: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Astana: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Tobol Kostanay: only games against sides at Astana's level · Astana: only games against sides at Tobol Kostanay's level

Left off the list: Astana 1UP (the numbers (52%) and the records (77%) are 25 points apart, and nothing settles it); Tobol Kostanay Under 1.5 goals (Tobol Kostanay's own games don't back it (2 of 5))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.1%

Tobol Kostanay goals →

Astana goals ↓

0-08%

1-09%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-33%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

TOBOL KOSTANAYWDWLWWLWWL1.90 PPG

ASTANAWWWWWDWWLW2.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

TOBOL KOSTANAY HOMExASTANA AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME2.101.10CONCEDED A GAME0.8010%CLEAN SHEETS30%31%FAILED TO SCORE24%0.32CORNERS A GAME1.050.47CARDS A GAME0.21

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.90POINTS A GAME2.44+0.60GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.11–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.010LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

72%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

37%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

74%

NO · 85/90

TOBOL KOSTANAY OR DRAW

66%

NO · 80/85

ASTANA OR DRAW

45%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

TOBOL KOSTANAYxASTANA

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME1.801.40CONCEDED A GAME0.803.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%60%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

TOBOL KOSTANAY 5 · 50%DRAW 1ASTANA 4 · 40%

6 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

7 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

6 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

3 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2022-09-14Tobol Kostanay 2 – 1 Astana

2023-04-09Tobol Kostanay 0 – 1 Astana

2023-09-16Tobol Kostanay 1 – 2 Astana

2024-04-21Tobol Kostanay 2 – 2 Astana

2024-05-08Tobol Kostanay 1 – 0 Astana

2024-11-03Tobol Kostanay 1 – 0 Astana

2025-05-10Tobol Kostanay 3 – 1 Astana

2025-09-19Tobol Kostanay 2 – 3 Astana

TRENDS

Tobol Kostanay have scored in 60% of their games.

Astana have scored in 90% of their games.

Tobol Kostanay kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Astana kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards