NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht
Match details. Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda.
What's at stake. NAC Breda are 13th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Waalwijk, level on points with Roda. A win would take them above Waalwijk. MVV Maastricht are 8th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Helmond Sport, level on points with Almere City FC. A win would take them above Helmond Sport.
Form. NAC Breda have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. MVV Maastricht have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L D.
The numbers. NAC Breda score 2.2 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets. NAC Breda average 17.0 shots (6.4 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. MVV Maastricht score 1.3 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. MVV Maastricht average 8.9 shots (3.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings NAC Breda have won eight, drawn none and lost two. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, NAC Breda won three and MVV Maastricht won one. The last time they met, on 29 Mar 2024, it finished NAC Breda 1-2 MVV Maastricht: NAC Breda had 21 shots to 13, 57% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 74% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: NAC Breda are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make NAC Breda the likelier winners; both teams' records favour NAC Breda; the meetings favour NAC Breda. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 77%. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 80% on the records (NAC Breda: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 9; MVV Maastricht: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: MVV Maastricht or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs NAC Breda); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: NAC Breda 2-1 MVV Maastricht (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).