Ontinyent CF vs CF Villarreal C
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Ontinyent CF have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. CF Villarreal C have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W.
The numbers. Ontinyent CF score 0.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Ontinyent CF average 6.2 shots (2.2 on target), 2.7 corners and 4.3 cards a game. CF Villarreal C score 2.2 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets. CF Villarreal C average 9.7 shots (4.0 on target), 3.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 44% against the records' 81%.
The read. No firm call: CF Villarreal C are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CF Villarreal C the likelier winners; CF Villarreal C are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CF Villarreal C. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, 88% on the records (Ontinyent CF: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; CF Villarreal C: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ontinyent CF 0-1 CF Villarreal C (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).