Scotland vs Slovenia
Match details. This is a UEFA Nations League League B, 4 fixture. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time at Hampden Park in Glasgow. The referee is Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez.
What's at stake. Scotland sit third on four points after three games, level with Slovenia and four points clear of FYR Macedonia. A win would lift them above Slovenia. Slovenia are second on four points, five points behind Switzerland and level with Scotland.
Form. Scotland have five wins, one draw and four losses in their last ten, averaging 1.6 points a game. Their last five results are W L D L L. Slovenia have one win, six draws and three defeats in their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five are L W D D L.
The numbers. At home Scotland score 1.5 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 9.5 shots (3.9 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, holding 44% of possession. Slovenia score 0.6 and concede one a game over ten, with five clean sheets and six games without a goal. They average 10.2 shots (3.3 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 40% possession.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Scotland have one win and two draws, no defeats. One of those games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in one. The most recent clash on 26 Sep 2026 ended 0-0, with Scotland on 17 shots to 4, 65% of the ball and four yellows.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board puts the price at 53% against the records' 29%.
The read. No firm call: Scotland are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Scotland the likelier winners, they are stronger on form and the table, and point to a tight game, with over 2.5 goals at 45% and two of the last three meetings under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.17, 82% on the records (Scotland: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home; Slovenia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.35. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Scotland 1-0 Slovenia (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).