Hamburger SV vs Copenhagen
Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time. It is played at Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Hamburger SV have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W. Copenhagen have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Hamburger SV score 1.3 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Hamburger SV average 11.2 shots (4.5 on target), 3.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Copenhagen score 2.2 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six away, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Copenhagen average 16.4 shots (5.7 on target), 5.3 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 61%.
The read. No firm call: Copenhagen are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Copenhagen the likelier winners; Copenhagen are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Copenhagen. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 71%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.70, 71% on the records (Hamburger SV: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10; Copenhagen: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Copenhagen Over 1.5 goals (Copenhagen's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Hamburger SV 1-2 Copenhagen (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).