Match details. National League, Championship Group - 2. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Keith Hay Park.
What's at stake. Auckland United FC are 7th on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Wellington Phoenix II, level on points with Eastern Suburbs. A win would take them above Wellington Phoenix II. Napier City Rovers AFC are 5th on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Wellington Olympic, level on points with Wellington Phoenix II. A win would take them above Wellington Olympic.
Form. Auckland United FC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L L. In this competition Auckland United FC have gone D L L L W L. Napier City Rovers AFC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W L. In this competition Napier City Rovers AFC have gone D.
The numbers. Auckland United FC score 1.1 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Napier City Rovers AFC score 2.8 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Auckland United FC have won one, drawn one and lost none. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 18 Nov 2023, it finished Auckland United FC 3-3 Napier City Rovers AFC.
The case against. Auckland United FC's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Napier City Rovers AFC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Napier City Rovers AFC the likelier winners; Napier City Rovers AFC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Napier City Rovers AFC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 76%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.50, 76% on the records (Auckland United FC: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10; Napier City Rovers AFC: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6 away). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Auckland United FC 1-2 Napier City Rovers AFC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).