Exeter City vs Oxford United
Match details. EFL Trophy. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
Form. Exeter City have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D L. Oxford United have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L W.
The numbers. Exeter City score one and concede 0.2 a game in their last six at home, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Exeter City average 8.9 shots (3.4 on target) and 1.6 cards a game. Oxford United score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Oxford United average 7.4 shots (3.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Exeter City the likelier winners, but Oxford United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Exeter City.
The case against. Exeter City's record still gives them 48% to win.
The read. Oxford United or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Exeter City the likelier winners; Oxford United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Exeter City. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 33%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Exeter City Under 1.5 goals (Oxford United's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Exeter City 1-1 Oxford United (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).