Morocco vs Mali
Match details. An international friendly on Sun 4 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Morocco have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D. Mali have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D D.
The numbers. Morocco score 1.7 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 12.9 shots (4.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Mali score 0.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 8.7 shots (2.4 on target), 3.8 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 78% against the records' 33%.
The read. No firm call: Morocco are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Morocco the likelier winners; Morocco are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 17%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Morocco are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 4.5 Goals (Morocco are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Morocco 2-0 Mali (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).