Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama
Match details. J1 League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 07:00 Lagos time. It is played at Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka.
What's at stake. Avispa Fukuoka are 18th on 4 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Nagoya Grampus, level on points with Tokyo Verdy. A win would take them above Nagoya Grampus. Fagiano Okayama are 9th on 13 points after 8 games, level on points with Kashima, 1 point clear of Urawa. A win would take them above Kashima.
Form. Avispa Fukuoka have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L D. Fagiano Okayama have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W.
The numbers. Avispa Fukuoka score one and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Avispa Fukuoka average 9.7 shots (4.0 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 40% of the ball. Fagiano Okayama score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Fagiano Okayama average 11.4 shots (3.0 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Avispa Fukuoka have won two, drawn five and lost two. Two of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Avispa Fukuoka won one, two were drawn and Fagiano Okayama won one. The last time they met, on 25 Apr 2026, it finished Avispa Fukuoka 0-2 Fagiano Okayama: Avispa Fukuoka had 9 shots to 6, 61% of the ball, two yellow cards.
The case against. Avispa Fukuoka's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Fagiano Okayama to win. A tight game. Fagiano Okayama are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Fagiano Okayama. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%. Seven of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.22, 75% on the records (Avispa Fukuoka: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; Fagiano Okayama: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7). Backup: Fagiano Okayama or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Fagiano Okayama 1UP (the signs point different ways); 1X2 - 2UP: Fagiano Okayama (the signs point different ways); Fagiano Okayama or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 Fagiano Okayama (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).