THE READ
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 4. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Zimbru, Chisinau. The referee is Yigal Frid.
What's at stake. Moldova are 3rd on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Faroe Islands, 2 points clear of Kazakhstan. A win would take them above Faroe Islands. Slovakia are 1st on 7 points after 3 games, 3 points clear of Faroe Islands.
Form. Moldova have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L L. Slovakia have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L.
The numbers. Moldova score 0.8 and concede 3.1 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. Moldova average 9.3 shots (3.5 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Slovakia score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Slovakia average 10.5 shots (4.0 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 70% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 26 Sep 2026, it finished Moldova 0-2 Slovakia: Moldova had 8 shots to 17, 32% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. Slovakia to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Slovakia the likelier winners; Slovakia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Slovakia. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.42, 72% on the records (Moldova: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10; Slovakia: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). The safer one: Moldova Under 1.5 Goals at 1.16 (82%). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Slovakia or draw and under 2.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Slovakia win and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Moldova 0-2 Slovakia (12% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Double Chance: Draw or SlovakiaIN CODES
1.10
MDA 7 of 10 (70%) · SVK 9 of 10 (90%)93.2%
Slovakia unbeaten in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Moldova failed to win 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against
Slovakia (Draw No Bet)IN CODES
1.14
MDA 6 of 9 (67%) · SVK 7 of 8 (88%)91.2%
Slovakia won 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Moldova lost 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 78% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 4, refunded 2, lost 2
Slovakia to Win Either Half: YesPAGE ONLY
1.23
MDA 8 of 10 (80%) · SVK 9 of 10 (90%)86%
Slovakia: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Moldova: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half Result or Match Result: SlovakiaPAGE ONLY
1.23
MDA 8 of 10 (80%) · SVK 9 of 10 (90%)86%
Slovakia: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Moldova: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1.23
MDA 4 of 5 (80%) · SVK 6 of 8 (75%)78.4%
Slovakia scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Moldova trailed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Slovakia or draw and under 3.5 goalsPAGE ONLY
1.54
MDA 5 of 10 (50%) · SVK 7 of 10 (70%)71.4%
Moldova: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Slovakia: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60% · each game weighed by who it was against
Slovakia to WinLEANPAGE ONLY
1.44
MDA 6 of 10 (60%) · SVK 7 of 10 (70%)65.5%
Slovakia won 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Moldova lost 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against
1X2 - 2UP: SlovakiaLEANHELD · the odds board 71%
1.40
MDA 2 of 5 (40%) · SVK 4 of 8 (50%)50.7%
Slovakia scored first 4 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 2 · led by 2 or won in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Moldova trailed by 2 or lost in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES
1.16
MDA 7 of 10 (70%) · SVK 8 of 10 (80%)90.2%
Moldova: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Slovakia: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.42
MDA 6 of 10 (60%) · SVK 8 of 10 (80%)77.4%
Moldova: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Slovakia: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · each game weighed by who it was against
MOLDOVA GOALS
Moldova Under 1.5 goalsSAFERIN CODES
1.16
MDA 8 of 10 (80%) · SVK 7 of 10 (70%)82.7%
Moldova scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Slovakia conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · each game weighed by who it was against
SLOVAKIA GOALS
Slovakia Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.12
MDA 8 of 10 (80%) · SVK 10 of 10 (100%)84.3%
Slovakia scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Moldova conceded in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.35
MDA 9 of 10 (90%) · SVK 7 of 10 (70%)76.6%
Moldova: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Slovakia: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Slovakia or draw and under 2.5 goals (the numbers (43%) and the records (56%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Slovakia win and under 3.5 goals (the numbers (43%) and the records (52%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
TRENDS
Moldova have scored in 60% of their games.
Slovakia have scored in 80% of their games.
Moldova kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.
Slovakia kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.