Holstein Kiel vs Viborg FF
Match details. It's an international friendly at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It's a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Holstein Kiel have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L W. Viborg FF have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W.
The numbers. Holstein Kiel score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet, averaging 14.1 shots (3.8 on target), 6.8 corners and 3.9 cards a game and holding 56% of the ball. Viborg FF score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal, averaging 14.1 shots (4.4 on target), 4.9 corners and 0.4 cards a game and holding 49% of the ball.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often; their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Viborg FF or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Viborg FF or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Viborg FF (Draw No Bet) (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Holstein Kiel 1-1 Viborg FF (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).