Turks and Caicos Islands vs Virgin Islands, British
Match details. It's a CONCACAF Nations League League C, 1 match. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. The game is at TCIFA National Academy in Providenciales.
Team news. Samuel Harvey is the first-choice keeper for the home side. Turks and Caicos Islands have confirmed their line-up. Virgin Islands, British have also confirmed theirs.
Form. Turks and Caicos Islands are 2-2-6 in their last ten, 0.8 points a game, with a recent run of W L L W L. In this competition they are W L L W L L. Virgin Islands, British have lost ten straight, 0.0 points a game, and their last five are all L.
The numbers. At home Turks and Caicos Islands average 0.8 goals for and 2.4 against in their last five, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 6.5 shots, 1.8 on target, 2.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game, holding 44% of possession. Virgin Islands, British score none and concede 2.6 away, no clean sheets and five games without a goal. They average 4.8 shots, 2.2 on target, 1.7 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 41% possession.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Turks and Caicos Islands have two wins, two draws and one loss. Four of those five went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in three. In the last four meetings they split results: one win each and two draws. The most recent meeting on 29 Sep 2026 ended 3-0 to Turks and Caicos Islands, with 16 shots to 8, 56% possession and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Their goals for and against point to a tight game, but the records give an over 2.5 goal chance of 69%. Four of the last five meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. If Samuel Harvey is missing, Turks and Caicos Islands lose their first-choice keeper. Virgin Islands, British still have a 28% chance to win. Not everything agrees on goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Turks and Caicos Islands or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Turks and Caicos Islands the likelier winners; Turks and Caicos Islands are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Turks and Caicos Islands. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%. Four of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Turks and Caicos Islands or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Turks and Caicos Islands Over 0.5 Goals (Turks and Caicos Islands's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Virgin Islands, British Under 1.5 goals (Turks and Caicos Islands's own games don't back it (1 of 5)). Predicted score: Turks and Caicos Islands 2-1 Virgin Islands, British (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).