Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League C - 3. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Bethlehem Soccer Stadium, Christiansted.
Team news. I. Lowe is their first-choice keeper. Q. Carey is their centre-back. J. Miller is their centre-back. Bahamas's line-up is confirmed. Virgin Islands, U.S.'s line-up is confirmed.
Form. Bahamas have won one, drawn none and lost nine of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition Bahamas have gone L L L W. Virgin Islands, U.S. have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W.
The numbers. Bahamas score 0.8 and concede 4.7 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Bahamas average 5.8 shots (2.2 on target), 1.8 corners and 0.5 cards a game, with 36% of the ball. Virgin Islands, U.S. score 1.4 and concede 2.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. Virgin Islands, U.S. average 7.7 shots (3.3 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 39% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Bahamas have won one, drawn one and lost one. Three of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 29 Sep 2026, it finished Bahamas 1-3 Virgin Islands, U.S.: Bahamas had 15 shots to 10, 58% of the ball, two yellow cards.
The case against. Bahamas's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Virgin Islands, U.S. to win. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Virgin Islands, U.S. the likelier winners; Virgin Islands, U.S. are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Virgin Islands, U.S.. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 86%. Three of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.10, 94% on the records (Bahamas: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; Virgin Islands, U.S.: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: Virgin Islands, U.S. or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Bahamas Over 0.5 goals (Bahamas's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Virgin Islands, U.S. Over 1.5 goals (Virgin Islands, U.S.'s own games don't back it (4 of 10)). Predicted score: Bahamas 1-2 Virgin Islands, U.S. (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).