Egypt vs South Africa
Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Egypt have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D W. South Africa have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D.
The numbers. Egypt score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 12.0 shots (4.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, holding 49% of the ball. South Africa score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. They average 14.6 shots (4.8 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.2 cards a game, holding 55% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Egypt have won one, drawn one and lost two. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 26 Dec 2025, it finished Egypt 1-0 South Africa: Egypt had 6 shots to 18, 36% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. South Africa's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. Egypt to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Egypt the likelier winners; Egypt are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 26%. Three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Egypt or Draw at 1.21, 85% on the records (Egypt unbeaten in 8 of 10; South Africa failed to win 3 of 5 away). Backup: Egypt or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Egypt 1-0 South Africa (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).