Belize vs French Guiana
Match details. This is a CONCACAF Nations League, League B - 4 match. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 03:00 Lagos time. It is played at FFB Stadium, Belmopan.
Form. Belize have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game; their last five, newest first: L W L L W, and in this competition they have gone L W. French Guiana have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game; their last five, newest first: W L D L L, and in this competition they have gone W L D L L L.
The numbers. Belize score 1.2 and concede 2.5 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal; they average 9.8 shots (3.0 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. French Guiana score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal; they average 11.6 shots (4.0 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Belize have won four, drawn two and lost two; three of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Belize won three and one was drawn, and the last meeting on 19 Nov 2024 finished Belize 2-2 French Guiana with Belize having 9 shots to 28, 39% of the ball and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. French Guiana are the form side, but the meetings favour Belize: in the last eight meetings, Belize won four, French Guiana won two and two were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%, five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.21, 64% on the records (Belize: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 10; French Guiana: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Belize or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); French Guiana or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Belize 1-1 French Guiana (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).