Match details. Primera C. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
Form. Deportivo Paraguayo have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W D. Club Mercedes have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L L.
The numbers. Deportivo Paraguayo score 1.5 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Deportivo Paraguayo average 4.0 corners and 3.1 cards a game. Club Mercedes score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Club Mercedes average 3.7 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: Deportivo Paraguayo are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Deportivo Paraguayo the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Deportivo Paraguayo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Club Mercedes or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Deportivo Paraguayo); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Deportivo Paraguayo 1-1 Club Mercedes (13% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Deportivo Paraguayo or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
DEP 6 of 6 (100%) · CLU 5 of 5 (100%)92.3%
Deportivo Paraguayo: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Club Mercedes: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · Deportivo Paraguayo: only games against sides at Club Mercedes's level · Club Mercedes: only games against sides at Deportivo Paraguayo's level
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
DEP 6 of 6 (100%) · CLU 5 of 5 (100%)95.9%
Deportivo Paraguayo: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Club Mercedes: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · Deportivo Paraguayo: only games against sides at Club Mercedes's level · Club Mercedes: only games against sides at Deportivo Paraguayo's level
Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
DEP 5 of 6 (83%) · CLU 4 of 5 (80%)89.7%
Deportivo Paraguayo: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Club Mercedes: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · Deportivo Paraguayo: only games against sides at Club Mercedes's level · Club Mercedes: only games against sides at Deportivo Paraguayo's level
Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
DEP 5 of 6 (83%) · CLU 4 of 5 (80%)77.5%
Deportivo Paraguayo: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Club Mercedes: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · Deportivo Paraguayo: only games against sides at Club Mercedes's level · Club Mercedes: only games against sides at Deportivo Paraguayo's level
Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.41
DEP 3 of 6 (50%) · CLU 4 of 5 (80%)52.4%
Deportivo Paraguayo: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 at home · Club Mercedes: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · Deportivo Paraguayo: only games against sides at Club Mercedes's level · Club Mercedes: only games against sides at Deportivo Paraguayo's level
CLUB MERCEDES GOALS
Club Mercedes Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.39
DEP 3 of 5 (60%) · CLU 5 of 6 (83%)70.7%
Club Mercedes scored in 3 of 5 away · Deportivo Paraguayo conceded in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 75% · Club Mercedes: only games against sides at Deportivo Paraguayo's level · Deportivo Paraguayo: only games against sides at Club Mercedes's level
Left off the list: Club Mercedes or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Deportivo Paraguayo); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–113.1%
Deportivo Paraguayo goals →
Club Mercedes goals ↓
0-08%
1-011%
2-08%
3-04%
4-02%
5-00.4%
0-18%
1-113%
2-19%
3-14%
4-12%
5-10.5%
0-25%
1-27%
2-25%
3-22%
4-20.9%
5-20.3%
0-32%
1-32%
2-32%
3-30.9%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-40.5%
1-40.7%
2-40.5%
3-40.2%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYODWLWDWLLDW1.50 PPG
CLUB MERCEDESWWDLLWLLDW1.40 PPG
THE NUMBERS
DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO HOMExCLUB MERCEDES AWAY
0.73SCORED A GAME0.971.27CONCEDED A GAME0.7750%BOTH SCORED30%20%CLEAN SHEETS40%4.00CORNERS A GAME3.733.15CARDS A GAME2.41
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
649 OF 684
NO PRICE YET
The league averages 5.0+ cards a game.
DRAW OR CLUB MERCEDES (1UP)
–
137 OF 146
NO PRICE YET
The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.50POINTS A GAME1.62+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.210LEAGUE GAMES8
No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
82%
OKAY · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
50%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
78%
NO · 85/90
DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO OR DRAW
82%
OKAY · 80/85
CLUB MERCEDES OR DRAW
44%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYOxCLUB MERCEDES
5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME0.801.40CONCEDED A GAME1.803.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%60%BOTH SCORE20%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Deportivo Paraguayo have scored in 50% of their games.
Club Mercedes have scored in 70% of their games.
Deportivo Paraguayo kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
Club Mercedes kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards