Match details. Liga Premier Serie A, Apertura - 6. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Mineros de Fresnillo FC are 4th on 8 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Acambaro. A win would take them above Acambaro. Saltillo Soccer FC are 5th on 8 points after 5 games, level on points with Calor de San Pedro. A win would take them above Calor de San Pedro.
Form. Mineros de Fresnillo FC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D D. Saltillo Soccer FC have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W L.
The numbers. Mineros de Fresnillo FC score 2.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Mineros de Fresnillo FC average 7.8 shots (3.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 0.8 cards a game. Saltillo Soccer FC score 1.8 and concede 2.4 a game over their last five, with one clean sheet. Saltillo Soccer FC average 3.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Mineros de Fresnillo FC have won none, drawn three and lost two. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, two were drawn and Saltillo Soccer FC won two. The last time they met, on 14 Jan 2024, it finished Mineros de Fresnillo FC 0-0 Saltillo Soccer FC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%; three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Saltillo Soccer FC's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. Mineros de Fresnillo FC to win. Their goals for and against make Mineros de Fresnillo FC the likelier winners; Mineros de Fresnillo FC are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Saltillo Soccer FC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Mineros de Fresnillo FC); Mineros de Fresnillo FC Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Saltillo Soccer FC or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Mineros de Fresnillo FC). Predicted score: Mineros de Fresnillo FC 2-1 Saltillo Soccer FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).