Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Kyrgyzstan have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D D. Lebanon have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W.
The numbers. Kyrgyzstan score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Kyrgyzstan average 6.8 shots (2.4 on target), 2.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 41% of the ball. Lebanon score 1.9 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and four games without a goal.
The case against. Lebanon's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. Kyrgyzstan to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Kyrgyzstan the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Kyrgyzstan. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. Best bet: Kyrgyzstan or Draw at 1.25, rated 79% (Kyrgyzstan unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; Lebanon failed to win 5 of 10). Predicted score: Kyrgyzstan 2-1 Lebanon (10% chance).
The agreed story. Kyrgyzstan or the draw, an open game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).