Saudi Arabia vs Qatar

Match details. Saudi Arabia play Qatar in the semi-finals of the Gulf Cup. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 16:55 Lagos time.

What's at stake. Saudi Arabia are first on nine points after three games, five points clear of Oman. Qatar are second on seven points after three games, level on points with United Arab Emirates, and four points clear of Yemen. A win would take them above United Arab Emirates. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Saudi Arabia have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, averaging 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are W, W, W, D, L. Qatar have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, with 1.2 points a game. Their last five are D, W, W, L, L.

The numbers. Saudi Arabia score 0.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 7.9 shots, 2.6 on target, 5.2 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Qatar score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. They average 8.5 shots, 3.2 on target, 4.3 corners and 2.1 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Saudi Arabia have won one, drawn none and lost one. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 5 Dec 2019, it finished Saudi Arabia 1-0 Qatar.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree here. The odds board makes it 62% against the records' 41%.

The read. No firm call: Saudi Arabia are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Saudi Arabia the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and the table. Those goals for and against point to a tight game, while their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Saudi Arabia or draw and under 2.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Saudi Arabia 1-0 Qatar (13% chance).