Match details. Hessenliga, Hessen - 12. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 19:30 Lagos time.
Form. Eintracht Stadtallendorf have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten league games, 2.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W L W. Turk Gucu Friedberg have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W L D W.
The numbers. Eintracht Stadtallendorf score 2.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Turk Gucu Friedberg score two and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets.
The case against. Turk Gucu Friedberg's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Eintracht Stadtallendorf to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Eintracht Stadtallendorf the likelier winners; Eintracht Stadtallendorf are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2-1 Turk Gucu Friedberg (10% chance).
The agreed story. Eintracht Stadtallendorf or the draw, an open game.
The league run. Eintracht Stadtallendorf: unbeaten in their last five league games (W W W W D). Turk Gucu Friedberg: no win in their last three league games (L D L D D).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).