Match details. Scottish Cup, 1st Round. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Tranent Juniors have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. Turriff United have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L.
The numbers. Tranent Juniors score 2.2 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Turriff United score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets.
The case against. Turriff United's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Tranent Juniors to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Tranent Juniors the likelier winners; Tranent Juniors are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tranent Juniors. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. Best bet: Tranent Juniors (Draw No Bet) at 1.10, 80% on the records (Tranent Juniors won 5 of 5 at home (draws left out); Turriff United lost 6 of 10 (draws left out)). Leave: Tranent Juniors or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Tranent Juniors 2-1 Turriff United (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).