Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League D - 4. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Bakcell Arena, Baku. The referee is Gustavo Correia.
What's at stake. Azerbaijan are 2nd on 2 points after 2 games, 2 points behind Lithuania, 1 point clear of Liechtenstein. A win would take them above Lithuania. Lithuania are 1st on 4 points after 2 games, 2 points clear of Azerbaijan.
Form. Azerbaijan have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L L. In this competition Azerbaijan have gone D D L. Lithuania have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. In this competition Lithuania have gone D W.
The numbers. Azerbaijan score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Azerbaijan average 8.0 shots (2.1 on target), 2.7 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 40% of the ball. Lithuania score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Lithuania average 9.6 shots (3.1 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 27 Sep 2026, it finished Azerbaijan 1-1 Lithuania: Azerbaijan had 9 shots to 9, 49% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their xG points to a tight game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania (31% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Azerbaijan the favourite), a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Azerbaijan in their last internationals: drew 0-0 v Liechtenstein, drew 1-1 at Lithuania, won 1-0 v Tajikistan. Lithuania in their last internationals: won 3-0 v Andorra, drew 1-1 v Azerbaijan, won 2-0 at Liechtenstein.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).