Hong Kong vs Cambodia
Cambodia scored in 5 of 5 away · Hong Kong conceded in 3 of 6 at home · both last 10: 91% · H2H 1 of 3 · each game weighed by who it was against
Match details. This is the FIFA ASEAN Cup Final. We are at the Kai Tak Sports Park in Hongkong for this one. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct at 11:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Hong Kong sit 1st on 6 points after 2 games, which puts them 3 points clear of Laos. Cambodia are 1st on 4 points after 2 games, 1 point clear of Myanmar. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Hong Kong have four wins, two draws and four defeats from their last ten matches, averaging 1.4 points a game. Their last five ended W W L D L, and they have gone W W in this tournament. Cambodia have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, averaging 1.1 points a game. They went D W in their cup games, with a broader run of D W L W L.
The numbers. At home, Hong Kong score three and concede 0.8 goals a game over their last six, keeping three clean sheets. They average 15.7 shots, 8.0 on target, 7.0 corners and 1.4 cards. Cambodia score 1.4 and concede three a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. The visitors average 9.0 shots, 3.8 on target, 5.3 corners and 1.0 cards.
Head to head. In the last three meetings, Hong Kong have won two, drawn one and lost none. Just one of those three games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in one. The last time they met was on 11 Jun 2022, when it finished Hong Kong 3-0 Cambodia.
Where it pulls both ways. Their goal records point to an open game, with their respective numbers putting over 2.5 goals at an 80% probability. However, two of their last three meetings went under 2.5 goals.
The case against. This is a knockout final with penalties if level, and Hong Kong are not clearly stronger.
The read. Hong Kong or the draw. Their goals for and against make Hong Kong the likelier winners. Hong Kong are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records and the meetings also favour Hong Kong.
The bets. Best bet: Hong Kong or Draw at 1.11, 83% on the records (Hong Kong unbeaten in 5 of 6 at home; Cambodia failed to win 5 of 5 away). Predicted score: Hong Kong 3-1 Cambodia (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).