HDHSL

14:00Sun 4 Oct

USA

HSL Derthona vs US Alessandria Calcio 1912

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group A, Group A - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. HSL Derthona are 3rd on 11 points after 5 games, level on points with Biellese, 1 point clear of Gozzano. A win would take them above Biellese. US Alessandria Calcio 1912 are 1st on 12 points after 5 games, 1 point clear of Biellese.

Form. HSL Derthona have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W. US Alessandria Calcio 1912 have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W.

The numbers. HSL Derthona score 0.9 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. HSL Derthona average 7.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game. US Alessandria Calcio 1912 score 1.4 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. US Alessandria Calcio 1912 average 11.8 shots (5.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game.

The case against. HSL Derthona's record still gives them 27% to win.

The read. US Alessandria Calcio 1912 to win. A tight game. US Alessandria Calcio 1912 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour US Alessandria Calcio 1912. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: HSL Derthona 0-1 US Alessandria Calcio 1912 (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HSL 9 of 9 (100%) · USA 5 of 5 (100%)100%

HSL Derthona: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · US Alessandria Calcio 1912: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · HSL Derthona: only games against sides at US Alessandria Calcio 1912's level · US Alessandria Calcio 1912: only games against sides at HSL Derthona's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HSL 8 of 9 (89%) · USA 4 of 5 (80%)84.4%

HSL Derthona: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · US Alessandria Calcio 1912: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · HSL Derthona: only games against sides at US Alessandria Calcio 1912's level · US Alessandria Calcio 1912: only games against sides at HSL Derthona's level

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 11.7%

HSL Derthona goals →

US Alessandria Calcio… goals ↓

0-013%

1-012%

2-07%

3-02%

4-00.7%

5-00.1%

0-112%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.7%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-27%

2-24%

3-21%

4-20.4%

5-20.1%

0-32%

1-33%

2-31%

3-30.5%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-40.6%

1-40.7%

2-40.4%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

HSL DERTHONALDDDLWDWWD1.40 PPG

US ALESSANDRIA CALCIO 1912LDLWDWWLWW1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

HSL DERTHONA HOMExUS ALESSANDRIA CALCIO 1912 AWAY

0.90SCORED A GAME1.400.80CONCEDED A GAME1.3040%CLEAN SHEETS20%20%FAILED TO SCORE0%7.00CORNERS A GAME5.002.50CARDS A GAME1.00

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.20POINTS A GAME2.40+0.60GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.40–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–2.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.45LEAGUE GAMES5

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

50%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

70%

NO · 85/90

HSL DERTHONA OR DRAW

74%

NO · 80/85

US ALESSANDRIA CALCIO 1912 OR DRAW

52%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HSL DERTHONAxUS ALESSANDRIA CALCIO 1912

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.800.60CONCEDED A GAME1.401.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.240%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

HSL Derthona have scored in 70% of their games.

US Alessandria Calcio 1912 have scored in 90% of their games.

HSL Derthona kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

US Alessandria Calcio 1912 kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards