Match details. Serie D, Group A, Group A - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Borgosesia Calcio are 12th on 6 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Fezzanese, 1 point clear of Chisola. A win would take them above Fezzanese. USD Sestri Levante 1919 are 15th on 4 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Sanremese, 2 points clear of Bra. A win would take them above Sanremese.
Form. Borgosesia Calcio have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D L D. USD Sestri Levante 1919 have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L W.
The numbers. Borgosesia Calcio score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. USD Sestri Levante 1919 score 0.7 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. USD Sestri Levante 1919 average 11.2 shots (2.8 on target), 3.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Borgosesia Calcio have won two, drawn none and lost two. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 7 May 2023, it finished Borgosesia Calcio 2-4 USD Sestri Levante 1919.
The case against. USD Sestri Levante 1919's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Borgosesia Calcio to win. A tight game. Borgosesia Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Borgosesia Calcio. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Borgosesia Calcio or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Borgosesia Calcio to Win (the signs point different ways); Borgosesia Calcio or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Borgosesia Calcio 1-0 USD Sestri Levante 1919 (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).