INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - CLUB FRIENDLY GAMES

SEVSEV

19:30Fri 2 Oct

AST

Sevilla vs Aston Villa

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. Sevilla host Aston Villa for an international friendly at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Kick-off is on Fri 2 Oct at 19:30 Lagos time.

What's at stake. Since it is a friendly, there are no points riding on this one.

Form. Sevilla have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten matches, averaging 1.6 points a game. Their recent form is mixed, reading L W W D L. Aston Villa have an identical record over their last ten games with five wins, one draw and four losses, also taking 1.6 points a game. But their last five look a bit stronger with W W L W D.

The numbers. At home, Sevilla score one and concede 1.6 a game over their last five, keeping one clean sheet. They average 10.8 shots, with 3.9 on target, 3.2 corners and 3.1 cards from 42% of the ball. Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.5 a game in their last eight away, keeping two clean sheets and failing to score in two. They average 12.8 shots, 4.2 on target, 3.9 corners and 2.6 cards with 45% of the ball.

The case against. Sevilla are still given a 38% chance to win, so it might not be all one-way traffic.

The read. Aston Villa to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Aston Villa the likelier winners, and both teams' records favour them here. Those goals for and against also point to an open game. In fact, their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sevilla 1-2 Aston Villa (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SEV 5 of 5 (100%) · AST 7 of 8 (88%)95.5%

Sevilla: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Aston Villa: over 0.5 goals in 7 of 8 away · both last 10: 96% · each game weighed by who it was against

SEVILLA GOALS

Sevilla Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.26

SEV 4 of 5 (80%) · AST 6 of 8 (75%)76.1%

Sevilla scored in 4 of 5 at home · Aston Villa conceded in 6 of 8 away · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

ASTON VILLA GOALS

Aston Villa Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.22

SEV 6 of 8 (75%) · AST 4 of 5 (80%)81%

Aston Villa scored in 6 of 8 away · Sevilla conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.18

SEV 4 of 5 (80%) · AST 6 of 8 (75%)81.4%

Sevilla: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 6 of 8 away · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

SEV 4 of 5 (80%) · AST 7 of 8 (88%)78.6%

Sevilla: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 7 of 8 away · both last 10: 67% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SEV 6 of 8 (75%) · AST 5 of 6 (83%)80.5%

Sevilla's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 82% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9.4%

Sevilla goals →

Aston Villa goals ↓

0-06%

1-06%

2-04%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.1%

0-18%

1-112%

2-17%

3-13%

4-11.0%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-26%

3-23%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-34%

1-35%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.6%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.6%

1-50.8%

2-50.5%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

SEVILLAWLLWWLDWWL1.60 PPG

ASTON VILLAWWLLLDWLWW1.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SEVILLA HOMExASTON VILLA AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME1.601.30CONCEDED A GAME1.5020%CLEAN SHEETS20%14%FAILED TO SCORE0%3.25CORNERS A GAME3.883.12CARDS A GAME2.620.86xG1.291.32xG AGAINST1.79

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.67POINTS A GAME0.80-0.17GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-1.00-2.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-5.01.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.86LEAGUE GAMES5

Sevilla: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

61%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

54%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SEVILLA OR DRAW

58%

NO · 80/85

ASTON VILLA OR DRAW

58%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SEVILLAxASTON VILLA

5GAMES51.00SCORED A GAME0.801.40CONCEDED A GAME1.802.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Sevilla have scored in 80% of their games.

Aston Villa have scored in 70% of their games.

Sevilla kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetscornerscards