Match details. Serie D, Group G, Group G - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. ASD Sarnese 1926 are 1st on 11 points after 5 games, 1 point clear of Paganese. Paganese Calcio are 2nd on 10 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Sarnese, level on points with Monastir. A win would take them above Sarnese.
Form. ASD Sarnese 1926 have won four, drawn six and lost none of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W. Paganese Calcio have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W.
The numbers. ASD Sarnese 1926 score two and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets. ASD Sarnese 1926 average 13.2 shots (4.0 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Paganese Calcio score 2.2 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Paganese Calcio average 11.4 shots (3.6 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings ASD Sarnese 1926 have won one, drawn one and lost three. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, ASD Sarnese 1926 won one, one was drawn and Paganese Calcio won two. The last time they met, on 22 Feb 2026, it finished ASD Sarnese 1926 1-1 Paganese Calcio.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%; three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: ASD Sarnese 1926 or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Paganese Calcio or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); ASD Sarnese 1926 or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: ASD Sarnese 1926 1-1 Paganese Calcio (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).