Match details. Serie D, Group I, Group I - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Calcio Avola 1949 are 6th on 9 points after 5 games, level on points with Digiesse PraiaTortora, 1 point clear of Licata. A win would take them above Digiesse PraiaTortora. Ragusa Calcio are 15th on 2 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Gela, level on points with Vigor Lamezia. A win would take them above Gela.
Form. Calcio Avola 1949 have won four, drawn one and lost two of their last seven, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L. Ragusa Calcio have won none, drawn six and lost four of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L D.
The numbers. Calcio Avola 1949 score 1.6 and concede 1.7 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets. Ragusa Calcio score 0.6 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Ragusa Calcio average 5.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The case against. Ragusa Calcio's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Calcio Avola 1949 to win. A tight game. Calcio Avola 1949 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Calcio Avola 1949. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Calcio Avola 1949 or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Calcio Avola 1949 to Win (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Calcio Avola 1949 1-0 Ragusa Calcio (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).