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ITALY - SERIE D, GROUP H
US Palmese 1914 crestUPUSP
14:00Sun 4 Oct
ACNAC Nardo crestAN

US Palmese 1914 vs AC Nardo

CLASS E
Pick cardFull analysisShare
THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group H, Group H - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. US Palmese 1914 are 15th on 4 points after 5 games, level on points with Melfi, 1 point clear of Francavilla. A win would take them above Melfi. AC Nardo are 13th on 5 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Brindisi, 1 point clear of Melfi. A win would take them above Brindisi.

Form. US Palmese 1914 have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D L. AC Nardo have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L.

The numbers. US Palmese 1914 score 0.7 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. US Palmese 1914 average 7.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. AC Nardo score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. AC Nardo average 7.0 shots (2.3 on target), 3.3 corners and 1.7 cards a game.

Head to head. AC Nardo have won all of the last four meetings. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 13 Apr 2025, it finished US Palmese 1914 2-3 AC Nardo.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 26% against the records' 57%.

The read. No firm call: AC Nardo are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AC Nardo the likelier winners; AC Nardo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AC Nardo; the meetings favour AC Nardo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: US Palmese 1914 1-1 AC Nardo (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USP 8 of 9 (89%) · ACN 9 of 9 (100%)95.2%
US Palmese 1914: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AC Nardo: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · H2H 4 of 4 · US Palmese 1914: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level · AC Nardo: only games against sides at US Palmese 1914's level
Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USP 8 of 9 (89%) · ACN 9 of 9 (100%)88.1%
US Palmese 1914: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AC Nardo: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · H2H 2 of 4 · US Palmese 1914: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level · AC Nardo: only games against sides at US Palmese 1914's level
US PALMESE 1914 GOALS
US Palmese 1914 Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USP 4 of 9 (44%) · ACN 6 of 9 (67%)54.8%
US Palmese 1914 scored in 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AC Nardo conceded in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 56% · H2H 2 of 4 · US Palmese 1914: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level · AC Nardo: only games against sides at US Palmese 1914's level
AC NARDO GOALS
AC Nardo Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USP 5 of 9 (56%) · ACN 6 of 9 (67%)66.7%
AC Nardo scored in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · US Palmese 1914 conceded in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 61% · H2H 4 of 4 · AC Nardo: only games against sides at US Palmese 1914's level · US Palmese 1914: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level
Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–1 13.1%
US Palmese 1914 goals →
AC Nardo goals ↓
0-09%
1-08%
2-04%
3-01%
4-00.3%
5-00.1%
0-112%
1-113%
2-16%
3-12%
4-10.5%
5-10.1%
0-29%
1-29%
2-25%
3-22%
4-20.4%
5-20.1%
0-35%
1-35%
2-32%
3-30.8%
4-30.2%
5-30.0%
0-42%
1-42%
2-40.9%
3-40.3%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.5%
1-50.5%
2-50.3%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10
US PALMESE 1914LWLLLLDWLL0.70 PPG
AC NARDOWLWLLLDDWL1.10 PPG
THE NUMBERS
US PALMESE 1914 HOMExAC NARDO AWAY
0.70SCORED A GAME0.801.90CONCEDED A GAME1.2030%CLEAN SHEETS30%40%FAILED TO SCORE60%7.00CORNERS A GAME3.331.00CARDS A GAME1.33
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 4
US PALMESE 1914 0 · 0%DRAW 0AC NARDO 4 · 100%
2 of 4BOTH TEAMS SCORED
2 of 4OVER 1.5 GOALS
2 of 4OVER 2.5 GOALS
2 of 4OVER 3.5 GOALS
2023-12-16US Palmese 1914 0 – 1 AC Nardo
2024-04-28US Palmese 1914 1 – 4 AC Nardo
2024-12-01US Palmese 1914 0 – 1 AC Nardo
2025-04-13US Palmese 1914 2 – 3 AC Nardo
TRENDS
US Palmese 1914 have scored in 50% of their games.
AC Nardo have scored in 60% of their games.
US Palmese 1914 kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
AC Nardo kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
BUILT FROM
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