AMASM

14:00Sun 4 Oct

ASD

AS Melfi 1929 vs ASD Nocerina 1910

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group H, Group H - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. AS Melfi 1929 are 14th on 4 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Nardò, level on points with USD Palmese. A win would take them above Nardò. ASD Nocerina 1910 are 4th on 10 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Turris, level on points with Real Normanna. A win would take them above Turris.

Form. AS Melfi 1929 have won one, drawn one and lost four of their last six, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L L. ASD Nocerina 1910 have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W.

The numbers. AS Melfi 1929 score 0.7 and concede 1.3 a game over their last six, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. AS Melfi 1929 average 9.0 shots (4.0 on target), 8.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game. ASD Nocerina 1910 score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. ASD Nocerina 1910 average 8.8 shots (2.6 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game.

The case against. AS Melfi 1929's record still gives them 27% to win.

The read. ASD Nocerina 1910 to win. A tight game. ASD Nocerina 1910 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour ASD Nocerina 1910. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: ASD Nocerina 1910 or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); ASD Nocerina 1910 or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AS Melfi 1929 0-1 ASD Nocerina 1910 (11% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

ASD Nocerina 1910 or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASM 7 of 9 (78%) · ASD 4 of 5 (80%)78.9%

ASD Nocerina 1910: the bet landed in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AS Melfi 1929: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · ASD Nocerina 1910: only games against sides at AS Melfi 1929's level · AS Melfi 1929: only games against sides at ASD Nocerina 1910's level

ASD Nocerina 1910 (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASM 3 of 6 (50%) · ASD 4 of 5 (80%)65%

ASD Nocerina 1910 won 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · AS Melfi 1929 lost 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 65% · ASD Nocerina 1910: only games against sides at AS Melfi 1929's level · won 1, refunded 3, lost 3

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASM 5 of 5 (100%) · ASD 9 of 9 (100%)100%

AS Melfi 1929: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · ASD Nocerina 1910: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · AS Melfi 1929: only games against sides at ASD Nocerina 1910's level · ASD Nocerina 1910: only games against sides at AS Melfi 1929's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASM 5 of 5 (100%) · ASD 8 of 9 (89%)94.4%

AS Melfi 1929: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · ASD Nocerina 1910: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · AS Melfi 1929: only games against sides at ASD Nocerina 1910's level · ASD Nocerina 1910: only games against sides at AS Melfi 1929's level

ASD NOCERINA 1910 GOALS

ASD Nocerina 1910 Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASM 6 of 9 (67%) · ASD 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%

ASD Nocerina 1910 scored in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AS Melfi 1929 conceded in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · ASD Nocerina 1910: only games against sides at AS Melfi 1929's level · AS Melfi 1929: only games against sides at ASD Nocerina 1910's level

Left off the list: ASD Nocerina 1910 or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); ASD Nocerina 1910 or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 10.8%

AS Melfi 1929 goals →

ASD Nocerina 1910 goals ↓

0-010%

1-010%

2-06%

3-02%

4-00.7%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.8%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-33%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.7%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-40.9%

1-41.0%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AS MELFI 1929LLLDWL0.67 PPG

ASD NOCERINA 1910DDLLDWDWLW1.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AS MELFI 1929 HOMExASD NOCERINA 1910 AWAY

0.67SCORED A GAME1.401.33CONCEDED A GAME1.3017%CLEAN SHEETS20%80%FAILED TO SCORE0%8.33CORNERS A GAME4.002.00CARDS A GAME1.40

TRENDS

AS Melfi 1929 have scored in 33% of their games.

ASD Nocerina 1910 have scored in 70% of their games.

AS Melfi 1929 kept a clean sheet in 17% of their games.

ASD Nocerina 1910 kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards