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ITALY - SERIE D, GROUP F
US Recanatese crestURUSR
14:00Sun 4 Oct
MACMaceratese crestMAC

US Recanatese vs Maceratese

CLASS E
Pick cardFull analysisShare
THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group F, Group F - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Nicola Tubaldi.

What's at stake. US Recanatese are 11th on 6 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Fossombrone, 1 point clear of Notaresco. A win would take them above Fossombrone. Maceratese are 14th on 4 points after 5 games, level on points with Real Giulianova, level on points with Sporting Trestina. A win would take them above Real Giulianova.

Form. US Recanatese have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D D. Maceratese have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L.

The numbers. US Recanatese score 1.8 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. US Recanatese average 10.0 shots (3.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Maceratese score 0.8 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Maceratese average 8.3 shots (2.5 on target), 2.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last two meetings US Recanatese have won none, drawn one and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 12 Apr 2026, it finished US Recanatese 1-2 Maceratese.

The read. US Recanatese to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make US Recanatese the likelier winners; US Recanatese are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour US Recanatese. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: US Recanatese or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); US Recanatese or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: US Recanatese 1-0 Maceratese (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
US Recanatese or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USR 5 of 5 (100%) · MAC 8 of 9 (89%)90.3%
US Recanatese: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Maceratese: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · US Recanatese: only games against sides at Maceratese's level · Maceratese: only games against sides at US Recanatese's level
US Recanatese or Both Teams ScorePAGE ONLY
no price yet
USR 3 of 5 (60%) · MAC 8 of 9 (89%)76.9%
US Recanatese: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Maceratese: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · US Recanatese: only games against sides at Maceratese's level · Maceratese: only games against sides at US Recanatese's level
US Recanatese to WinLEANPAGE ONLY
1.95
USR 3 of 5 (60%) · MAC 5 of 9 (56%)54%
US Recanatese won 3 of 5 at home · Maceratese lost 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 47% · US Recanatese: only games against sides at Maceratese's level · Maceratese: only games against sides at US Recanatese's level
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USR 5 of 5 (100%) · MAC 9 of 9 (100%)100%
US Recanatese: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Maceratese: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · US Recanatese: only games against sides at Maceratese's level · Maceratese: only games against sides at US Recanatese's level
Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USR 3 of 5 (60%) · MAC 9 of 9 (100%)80.4%
US Recanatese: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Maceratese: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · US Recanatese: only games against sides at Maceratese's level · Maceratese: only games against sides at US Recanatese's level
US RECANATESE GOALS
US Recanatese Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USR 3 of 5 (60%) · MAC 8 of 9 (89%)76.9%
US Recanatese scored in 3 of 5 at home · Maceratese conceded in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · US Recanatese: only games against sides at Maceratese's level · Maceratese: only games against sides at US Recanatese's level
MACERATESE GOALS
Maceratese Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
USR 5 of 9 (56%) · MAC 2 of 5 (40%)51.5%
Maceratese scored in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · US Recanatese conceded in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 59% · Maceratese: only games against sides at US Recanatese's level · US Recanatese: only games against sides at Maceratese's level
Left off the list: US Recanatese or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); US Recanatese or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–0 14.4%
US Recanatese goals →
Maceratese goals ↓
0-010%
1-014%
2-012%
3-06%
4-03%
5-00.8%
0-17%
1-112%
2-19%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.6%
0-23%
1-24%
2-23%
3-22%
4-20.7%
5-20.2%
0-30.7%
1-31%
2-30.9%
3-30.5%
4-30.2%
5-30.1%
0-40.1%
1-40.2%
2-40.2%
3-40.1%
4-40.0%
5-40.0%
0-50.0%
1-50.0%
2-50.0%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10
US RECANATESEDWWDDDDWDL1.50 PPG
MACERATESEWLDLDLLLWD0.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
US RECANATESE HOMExMACERATESE AWAY
1.60SCORED A GAME0.801.10CONCEDED A GAME1.4030%CLEAN SHEETS10%40%FAILED TO SCORE40%4.33CORNERS A GAME2.002.67CARDS A GAME2.17
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2
US RECANATESE 0 · 0%DRAW 1MACERATESE 1 · 50%
2025-11-30US Recanatese 2 – 2 Maceratese
2026-04-12US Recanatese 1 – 2 Maceratese
TRENDS
US Recanatese have scored in 80% of their games.
Maceratese have scored in 60% of their games.
US Recanatese kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
Maceratese kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.
BUILT FROM
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