Match details. Serie D, Group F, Group F - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AC Foligno 1928 are 4th on 10 points after 5 games, level on points with Teramo, 2 points clear of Ancona. A win would take them above Teramo. Angelana 1930 are 16th on 4 points after 5 games, level on points with Sporting Trestina, level on points with Termoli Calcio. A win would take them above Sporting Trestina.
Form. AC Foligno 1928 have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W. Angelana 1930 have won one, drawn one and lost four of their last six, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W.
The numbers. AC Foligno 1928 score 0.8 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. AC Foligno 1928 average 11.3 shots (3.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Angelana 1930 score 0.7 and concede 1.5 a game over their last six, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Angelana 1930 average 5.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The case against. Angelana 1930's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. AC Foligno 1928 to win. A tight game. AC Foligno 1928 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AC Foligno 1928. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AC Foligno 1928 to Win (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AC Foligno 1928 1-0 Angelana 1930 (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).